If recent World Cups are any indicator, then backing the established stars of global football to be tournament top scorer just don't pay.
While you can, of course, bet each-way in the market with most bookmakers offering a quarter of the outright odds for four places, it is worth considering some fresher faces to step up instead of the usual suspects. Which new names on the global stage could be World Cup top scorer?
Gabriel Jesus (Brazil)
While Manchester City fans will know Gabriel Jesus and what he can do in front of goal well, the 2018 World Cup in Russia is the first major senior tournament he's played at. He did win a gold medal at the Summer Olympics on home soil in Brazil two years ago as part of their under-23 team.
After scoring seven goals in World Cup qualifying for Tite's Selecao and 17 across all competitions during his first full season in England, Jesus offers the kind of pacy threat which means the Swiss, Serbian and Costa Rican defenders won't relish coming up against in the group.
The World Cup 2018 top scorer odds on Gabriel Jesus are a sweet 16/1 for him to add to 10 senior international goals in just 17 caps. Playing in and around the likes of Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, Neymar and Willian, he won't find service lacking.
Timo Werner (Germany)
A young German with the uncanny knack of being in the right place in the right time romped to the Golden Boot in South Africa two World Cups ago. That was Thomas Muller and, while he's still a firm part of Joachim Low's plans, RB Leipzig striker Timo Werner is that up-and-coming talent in attack now.
After scoring 21 goals in each of the last two seasons for his club, Werner helped Die Mannschaft win the Confederations Cup in Russia last summer scoring three times at that warm-up tournament. Six of his eight international goals at senior level before the World Cup have been in competitive games.
Germany's pool, Group F, contains games with Mexico - who Werner netted against at the Confed Cup - Sweden and South Korea. The World Cup holders should go far and Werner is 14/1 to be tournament top scorer.
Kylian Mbappe (France)
Les Bleus won the World Cup on home soil 20 years ago with a team packed full of exciting young forward talent. Didier Deschamps captained France to global glory then and has been their manager since 2012, so he's picked a number of attacking prospects.
We could easily highlight Thomas Lemar of Monaco or Ousmane Dembele, who has already made big money moves away from France, but Kylian Mbappe is set to become the second most expensive footballer of all time once his loan move to PSG is officially made permanent.
Mbappe is still a teenager but already has a huge price tag to live up to at club level. While PSG's Qatari owners think little of splashing their petrodollars, Deschamps will hope he can hit new heights on his World Cup debut. With three in five caps in 2018 before the World Cup, Mbappe is a 33/1 shot to be tournament top scorer for Les Bleus, who should sail past Australia, Peru and Denmark in their pool.